The Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada (IRB) decides refugee protection claims, refugee appeals, admissibility hearings, and many immigration appeals. When intake grows faster than decisions, families wait longer for hearings. The IRB’s 2026 to 2027 Departmental Plan expects an accumulated refugee protection inventory of approximately 300,000 claims at the end of March 2026.
1. What the inventory numbers mean
The IRB says intake of refugee protection claims decreased from record levels in 2023 and 2024, but it still expected around 100,000 claims in fiscal year 2025 to 2026. Even with that decrease, the accumulated inventory was expected to sit around 300,000 claims by the end of March 2026, above funded capacity.
Figures move monthly with new claims, withdrawals, and decisions. Treat “300,000” as a system-pressure indicator, not your personal queue position. A strong file can still move differently depending on readiness, hearing location, country conditions, security screening, and whether the claim is identified for a faster or simpler process.
Official IRB snapshot
The IRB reported finalizing more than 102,500 decisions in 2024 to 2025, which was 17,800 above funded capacity, and described a 29% productivity increase from the previous year. The backlog is not simply because nothing is being decided; it is because intake and accumulated inventory remain larger than funded capacity can absorb quickly.
2. Why delays grew
Several forces compounded at once:
- Record-level claims in 2023 and 2024 created inventory that did not disappear when intake cooled.
- Finite adjudicator capacity means temporary funding helps, but does not instantly erase accumulated files.
- Security screening and incomplete files can hold cases out of the ready-to-schedule pool.
- Multiple IRB divisions, including RAD appeals, IAD appeals, ID admissibility matters, and RPD claims, all require institutional capacity.
3. What long waits mean in real life (especially Ontario)
While a claim is pending, a claimant’s ability to work, study, or access services often depends on permits and provincial programs. In the GTA and other Ontario cities, prolonged waits intersect with housing costs, informal employment risk, and family separation. A strategic file is not only about the eventual hearing; it is about maintaining status, renewing documents, and documenting changed country conditions as years pass.
4. IRB modernization and “schedule-ready” claims
IRCC has announced asylum-process modernization connected to Bill C-12, including referring only complete, schedule-ready claims to the IRB. For applicants, that means tighter expectations on forms, evidence packages, and responsiveness to IRCC and IRB requests. Incomplete files risk sitting in administrative limbo even longer.
5. Practical steps while you wait
- Keep a master folder of identity documents, police certificates, medical letters, and country-condition reports dated over time.
- Notify counsel immediately if you move, if family composition changes, or if you receive any CBSA enforcement letter.
- If work authorization is available, maintain compliance; breaches can jeopardize the humanitarian side of your case.
Backlogs are a policy problem on a chart; for claimants, they are years of life. Planning beats hoping.